{"version":1,"type":"rich","provider_name":"Libsyn","provider_url":"https:\/\/www.libsyn.com","height":90,"width":600,"title":"Bad News is Good News? | SpaceX Shares Unlock Angle | Fed Hikes Off the Table? | There Aren\u2019t 10% Pre-Tax US Treasuries","description":"Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about a jobs report the market read as bad news is good news: payrolls up just 23,000 versus 80,000 expected, the prior two months revised down by 103,000, and participation slipping to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021, even as unemployment fell to 4.1%. Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already weighing on the labor market, yet overnight index swaps still price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 \u2014 so are hikes really off the table? Plus, the US Dollar Index breakout, why there aren't 10% pre-tax US Treasuries, and how the SpaceX share unlock could lift its Nasdaq-100 weight from roughly 1.3% to 3.1%.     Nonfarm payrolls added just 23,000 jobs in July versus 80,000 expected. The prior two months were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. Private payrolls rose 30,000 and manufacturing added 5,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already hurting the labor market and hikes aren't justified. Labor force participation fell to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021 per Charlie Bilello. Average hourly earnings rose 3.2% year over year versus 3.5% expected. Overnight index swaps now price about 1.7 hikes by mid-2027 with the implied rate near 4.05%. Why is the market pricing hikes rather than cuts after a soft jobs number? J.C. Parets asks whether the US Dollar Index breakout is a big deal. What a stronger dollar means for multinationals and commodities. Eric Balchunas notes the Middle East oil shipping futures ETF is up 1,294% year to date Drewry's WCI container freight benchmark sits at 4,297.46 per 40-foot box What rising freight and shipping rates signal about goods inflation ahead. How Nasdaq-100 weighs an adjusted market cap: SpaceX at roughly $1.5 trillion with about 5% free float SpaceX has a 15% factor, or about $225 billion effective cap and roughly a 1.3% index weight. If free float jumps to 12%, the factor jumps to 36%, based on today\u2019s price would raise weight to 3.1%   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore\u2019s book Broken Pie Chart https:\/\/amzn.to\/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli\u2019s book Buy and Hedge https:\/\/amzn.to\/3jQYgMt   Derek\u2019s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https:\/\/amzn.to\/3hL1Mag   ","author_name":"Broken Pie Chart","author_url":"http:\/\/www.razorwealth.com","html":"