{"version":1,"type":"rich","provider_name":"Libsyn","provider_url":"https:\/\/www.libsyn.com","height":90,"width":600,"title":"552: The Inflation Spike Everyone Will Misread","description":"This week, you\u2019re going to start hearing a familiar narrative again\u2026 \u201cInflation is back.\u201d And on the surface, it\u2019s going to look true. The next CPI print is very likely to come in hotter than expected. We\u2019re already seeing it in real-time data like Truflation. Energy prices have surged, and because energy feeds directly into headline CPI, it\u2019s going to push that number up\u2014fast. But here\u2019s the problem\u2026 That\u2019s not the whole story. Energy is notoriously volatile, which is why the Fed focuses more on core inflation\u2014stripping out food and energy. But even core isn\u2019t immune here. Petroleum touches nearly everything in the economy\u2014transportation, manufacturing, packaging\u2014so some of that pressure will bleed through. So yes, in the short term, inflation is going to look worse. But step back for a second. This spike is being driven largely by geopolitical tension\u2014specifically the situation with Iran. And unlike past conflicts, this is not shaping up to be a multi-year war like Iraq or Afghanistan. In fact, the current administration is already signaling that this could be resolved relatively quickly. Whether it\u2019s weeks or a few months, the key point is this: This is a temporary shock, not a structural shift. And when that shock fades, energy prices will likely come back down\u2026 bringing headline inflation with it. Meanwhile, underneath the surface, something very different is happening. Core inflation\u2014particularly housing\u2014is already decelerating. Housing makes up roughly 30% of CPI, and here\u2019s the kicker: The way it\u2019s measured is lagged by about six months. In other words, the official data you\u2019re seeing today is reflecting what rents were doing half a year ago. But in the real world, rents have already been cooling. That\u2019s why the most important question right now isn\u2019t: \u201cWhat does CPI say?\u201d It\u2019s: \u201cWhat\u2019s actually happening in real time?\u201d That\u2019s exactly what we explore in this week\u2019s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast. Our guest, Edward Coulson, is one of the leading experts in housing data. He uses alternative models that track real-time rental trends\u2014and more importantly, he\u2019s been consistently ahead of the curve in predicting the direction of core inflation. Even before this recent energy spike, his data has been showing a clear trend: Inflation has been overstated\u2014and it\u2019s been slowing for months. So while the headlines may soon scream \u201cinflation is back,\u201d the reality may be the opposite. This is one of those moments where understanding the components of inflation\u2014and the timing behind them\u2014matters more than ever. Listen to this week\u2019s Wealth Formula Podcast to get the full picture. Because if you\u2019re making decisions based only on headline numbers, you\u2019re likely to get this one completely wrong. ","author_name":"Wealth Formula Podcast","author_url":"http:\/\/www.wealthformula.com\/","html":"