{"version":1,"type":"rich","provider_name":"Libsyn","provider_url":"https:\/\/www.libsyn.com","height":90,"width":600,"title":"War, Fuel & Fertilizer: The Inflation Pipeline","description":"Worldwide Markets \u2014 Episode 680 | 18 March 2026 Powered by Standard Bank, Global Markets, Retail and Shyft \u26fd Fuel Price Pain Coming Petrol 95 up ~R4.50\/litre and diesel up ~R7.50\/litre from the first Wednesday in April. On a 50-litre tank that's R200+ for petrol and close to R400 for diesel. Fill up before April if you can. \ud83d\udee2\ufe0f Oil & The Iran War Brent holding above $100\/barrel (currently ~$103.50) \u2014 briefly dipping to $99.80 on Monday before recovering. Markets are pricing in a short war. Some vessels \u2014 largely Iranian-linked ships \u2014 are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait have cut production. Strategic oil reserves are being released globally. \ud83d\udcc9 Market Reactions Drops from the start of the war's close: China -1%, US -4%, UK -5%, Europe -6%, India -8%, Japan -9%, South Korea -12%, UAE -15%, SA -~10%. The rand at R16.72, SA 10-year bond yield has surged from below 8% to 8.9% \u2014 a massive move. \ud83c\udf0d Emerging Market Risks A deep dive into countries with high USD-denominated debt and heavy oil imports. The most vulnerable: Mozambique (38% USD debt), Ghana (28%), Egypt (27%), Sri Lanka (26%), Pakistan (22%). Egypt is the only one in the MSCI EM Index \u2014 at a 0.03% weighting \u2014 so the direct ETF risk is limited. But Egypt and Pakistan carry real standalone risk. \ud83c\udf31 Fertilizer & Food Prices Urea (a byproduct of LNG) is largely sourced from the UAE \u2014 and it's not moving right now. Fertilizer prices are spiking. Combined with diesel costs, food price inflation is coming \u2014 just with a lag. Casey Sprake (AG Capital) maps the timeline: transport 1\u20133 months, food 1\u20133 months, broader CPI 4 months, electricity up to a year. \ud83d\uded2 Mr. Price* Update The investor presentation on the German fashion retailer acquisition landed today. Stock was up ~2.5% earlier but has since retreated into the red \u2014 not an aggressive selloff, with support just below R170. \ud83d\udcca Results Roundup AVI \u2014 solid numbers, strong margin protection, fashion had a surprisingly good December Weaver Fintech (formerly HomeChoice) \u2014 buy-now-pay-later funnel leading into unsecured credit and insurance; majority female customer base; a neat business model Absa \u2014 not bad Standard Bank \u2014 exceptional cost discipline Optasia* \u2014 maiden results, trading around listing price of ~R19, P\/E ~30x but expected to grow at ~30%, PEG ~1 \ud83d\udcbb SaaS Check-in The "SaaS is dead" debate continues. Mass layoffs (e.g. Block shedding ~4,000 staff) mean lost per-seat licences and potential revenue pressure. Worth watching, but tech hiring data still skews net positive for now. \ud83c\udfe6 Fed Chair Watch Trump's nominee Kevin Walsh hasn't been sent to the Senate yet \u2014 possibly compliance issues (Walsh's spouse is a billionaire). Senator Tillis (R) says he won't vote for any Fed chair nominee until charges against Jerome Powell are dropped. Jerome Powell's term ends end of May. Outcome unclear. \ud83e\uddfa UK CPI Basket Changes Non-alcoholic beer, hummus, croissants, motorhomes and international rail fares are being added. Wine categories merged. Vegetables better represented. February data drops 25 March. \ud83e\udd16 AI in the Wild Simon shares a cautionary Claude Opus 4.6 experience \u2014 building a detailed initiation report on ADvTech* worked well in parts, but the final consolidation hit rate limits, produced a corrupted document, and then delivered a garbled output with wrong JSE codes and incorrect founder attribution. A reminder that very long context windows can degrade LLM output quality. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order ","author_name":"WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown","author_url":"http:\/\/www.justonelap.com","html":"