{"version":1,"type":"rich","provider_name":"Libsyn","provider_url":"https:\/\/www.libsyn.com","height":90,"width":600,"title":"As Uncertainty Rules, Rate Cuts are Gone","description":"\ud83c\udf0d World Wide Markets \u2013 Episode 669 \ud83d\udcc5 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT \ud83e\udded Market Mood: Chaos Means Doing Nothing With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain. Simon\u2019s strategy right now? \ud83e\uddd8 Do nothing. Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold. \ud83d\udee2\ufe0f Oil Shock: From $60 to $120 Oil has been incredibly volatile. \ud83d\udcca Recent moves Early January: ~$60 Monday spike: ~$120 Tuesday: briefly below $90 Current level: ~$91 That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date. The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. \ud83d\udea2 Shipping traffic Normal flow: ~20 million barrels\/day Last Wednesday: 0 barrels Monday: ~20% of normal Oil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile. \u26fd What This Means for South Africa Higher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices. \ud83d\udcb8 Earlier estimates suggested: Petrol: +R5.40 Diesel: +R10 After oil pulled back slightly: Petrol increase may be ~R3 Diesel ~R5 Still extremely painful for the economy. \ud83d\udcc8 Inflation & Interest Rates Oil shocks ripple through inflation. \ud83d\udcca Rule of thumb: Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation. With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean: \u27a1\ufe0f ~1.2% extra global inflation For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again. \ud83c\udfe6 Rate Cuts Are Off the Table Upcoming meetings: \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 Fed decision: 18 March \ud83c\uddff\ud83c\udde6 SARB MPC: 26 March Previously expected: rate cuts. Now? \u274c Cuts unlikely Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs. \u2694\ufe0f The War Question Markets are asking one thing: How long does this conflict last? Current signals: Iran says it won\u2019t capitulate US and Israel still active UAE attacks have slowed One possible constraint: missile inventories. Iran\u2019s cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems. At some point, stocks run out. \ud83d\udee2\ufe0f G7 Emergency Oil Plan The G7 strategic reserves may be tapped. \ud83d\udce6 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels Possible release: \u27a1\ufe0f 300\u2013400 million barrels This could cover roughly 15\u201320 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions. That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired. \ud83d\udcc9 Best vs Worst Oil Scenarios Best Case \u2714 Conflict ends within weeks \u2714 Strategic reserves released \u2714 Oil stabilises in the $80s Worst Case \ud83d\udd25 War escalates \ud83d\udd25 Shipping disruptions persist \ud83d\udd25 Oil spikes to $150\u2013$200 At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction \u2014 people simply use less energy. \ud83e\udd16 New Structured Product: AI & Big Data Auto Call Standard Bank has launched a new structured product. \ud83d\udcca AI & Big Data Auto Call Key features: \ud83d\udcb0 Return: 14% per year \ud83d\udcc5 Term: Up to 5 years \ud83d\udd01 Auto-call: Annual payout if index is flat or positive \ud83d\udcb5 Currency: Rand \ud83d\udcc9 Capital protection: Up to 30% downside buffer at maturity \ud83d\udce5 Minimum investment: R25,000 \ud83e\udde0 Index Constituents The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index. Top holdings include: Nvidia Palantir Snowflake AMD Broadcom SoundHound AI Kingsoft Cloud BigBear.ai DataVault Zenitech Total: 30 companies in the index. \ud83c\uddff\ud83c\udde6 SA GDP: Small Steps Forward South Africa released Q4 GDP. \ud83d\udcca Q4 2025: +0.4% Full-year growth: 2024: 0.5% 2025: 1.1% Not amazing, but improving. Forecast for 2026: \ud83d\udcc8 1.6% \u2013 1.8% If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person. \ud83c\udfac Paramount Buying Warner Bros (Again\u2026) The media industry continues consolidating. Deal overview: \ud83d\udcb0 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery \ud83d\udce6 Price: ~$100 billion Netflix initially pursued the deal but walked away. \ud83d\udcb5 Result: Netflix collected a $2.8B break fee Its stock jumped ~15% \ud83c\udde8\ud83c\uddf3 Tencent Joins the Deal New twist: Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition. For South African investors: Satrix 40 \u2192 Naspers \u2192 Prosus \u2192 Tencent \u2192 Paramount. Yes\u2026 it\u2019s complicated. \ud83c\udfa5 Why Simon Thinks This Is a Bad Idea The concerns: \ud83d\udcc9 Traditional media is declining \ud83e\udd16 Studios betting on AI-generated content \ud83c\udfdb\ufe0f Politics may influence the deal Warner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL\u2013Time Warner disaster. Simon\u2019s take: This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price. \ud83d\udd52 Market Hours Change The US switched to daylight savings. New trading times for South Africa: \ud83d\udcc8 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30) \u2708\ufe0f Personal Note Simon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew\u2019s 18th birthday. Time flies. \u2714 Key Takeaway Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices. Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order ","author_name":"WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown","author_url":"http:\/\/www.justonelap.com","html":"