{"version":1,"type":"rich","provider_name":"Libsyn","provider_url":"https:\/\/www.libsyn.com","height":90,"width":600,"title":"Perspectives: Episode 125 \u2013 Oil, power, and portfolio discipline","description":"In this episode of Perspectives, Escala Chief Investment Officer, Tracey McNaughton, talks about today\u2019s tensions in the Middle East, why geopolitical volatility is often shorter than feared and what it means for US-China relations. Plus, why credit investing demands ruthless diversification. (0:53) Let\u2019s start with the geopolitical shock. The United States and Israel have launched coordinated strikes on Iran, escalating tensions in a way we haven\u2019t seen for years. (1:42) We saw something similar in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil spiked to over $120 a barrel. But within six months it was back under $80. Markets adjusted. (3:26) And it did create inflation back then \u2013 in the order of 9-10% in Australia. Markets don\u2019t like supply-side shocks because they tend to be inflationary. (4:46) How does this align with Trump\u2019s negotiating style. Historically, Trump\u2019s approach has often been to escalate early and aggressively \u2014 create leverage, create uncertainty, reset the negotiating dynamic \u2014 and then reposition any de-escalation as a deal. (5:28) Trump is due to visit China soon. And China is the world\u2019s largest oil importer. How does this conflict interact with US\u2013China relations? (6:30) Are we entering a fundamentally more dangerous geopolitical era? Or does it just feel that way? (9:16) So, when investors assume every geopolitical event is the start of a structural bear market, history suggests caution? (9:46) What about defence spending? Are we entering a structural rearmament cycle? (11:16) And then there\u2019s globalisation. For years we were told economic interdependence reduces the probability of war. (12:48) So where does that leave investors? (14:17) Let\u2019s pivot to private credit. It\u2019s been back in the headlines recently. Some managers have tightened withdrawal terms, and it\u2019s prompted questions about risk. Is there something investors should be worried about? (18:17) When people see headlines about stress in a particular credit vehicle, what should they focus on? ","author_name":"'Perspectives' by Escala","author_url":"https:\/\/escalapartners.com.au\/","html":"