{"version":1,"type":"rich","provider_name":"Libsyn","provider_url":"https:\/\/www.libsyn.com","height":90,"width":600,"title":"Hyper Capex Spending | Junior Miner Pain","description":"\ud83c\udf99\ufe0f Worldwide Markets \u2013 Episode 665 \ud83d\udcc5 11 February | \ud83c\udfa7 Recorded Tuesday around lunchtime \ud83d\udcbc Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft \ud83c\udf0d This week in markets Massive hyperscaler CapEx is back in focus \ud83d\udcb0\ud83c\udfd7\ufe0f Markets appear calmer \u2013 the worst of the recent collapse may be behind us \ud83d\ude2e\u200d\ud83d\udca8 Bitcoin mining costs now around $70,000, putting pressure on miners \u26cf\ufe0f\u20bf A deep dive into junior miners \u2013 why so many of them struggle \u2692\ufe0f\ud83d\udcc9 \ud83c\udfd7\ufe0f Hyperscalers go full throttle 2025 CapEx spend near $380bn, well above expectations 2026 estimates push towards $660bn when Oracle is included The hyperscalers: Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon \u2601\ufe0f The \u201cshovel sellers\u201d: Nvidia*, ASML*, TSMC \ud83e\uddd1\u200d\ud83c\udfed\ud83e\ude93 Key shift: these businesses are no longer asset-light Warning signs emerge as some stocks trade below their 200-day moving averages \u26a0\ufe0f\ud83d\udcc9 \u201cNothing good happens below the 200-day.\u201d \ud83d\udcca Stocks & charts Microsoft & Meta showing the most technical stress Nvidia* and ASML* still look healthy on the charts \u2705 Apple largely staying out of the AI CapEx frenzy \ud83c\udf4f 1nvest ETF5IT*: profits taken previously, now watching closely \ud83d\udc40 \ud83e\udd16 Software shock & AI disruption Growing fear around software-as-a-service under pressure New AI tools like Claude and \u201cvibe coding\u201d spooking SaaS names \ud83d\udcbb\ud83d\ude2c Reality check: Niche software may struggle Enterprise platforms (e.g. Salesforce-type businesses) are harder to replace \ud83e\ude99 Bitcoin, gold & currencies Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, now rebounded to mid-$60k Mining economics tight at current prices \u26a0\ufe0f Gold back above $5,000, refusing to consolidate \ud83e\udd47\ud83d\udd25 Ongoing dollar weakness and rand strength \ud83d\udcb5\u2b07\ufe0f \ud83c\uddff\ud83c\udde6\u2b06\ufe0f \ud83c\udf10 The debasement trade Signs of slow de-dollarisation and capital moving out of US Treasuries China reportedly limiting (not stopping) US bond buying \ud83c\udde8\ud83c\uddf3\ud83d\udcc9 Key takeaway: This is a multi-decade trend, not a short-term trade \ud83d\udc22 Governments reduce debt via: Inflation Currency weakness \ud83d\udda5\ufe0f A possible opportunity: servers Hyperscalers replacing ageing chips & servers faster than expected Alphabet spending up to $185bn, with ~\u2153 just on replacement \ud83d\udd01 Question raised: Is Dell a quiet AI beneficiary? \ud83d\udda5\ufe0f\ud83d\udce6 Forward PE near 10 Analysts broadly constructive \u2692\ufe0f Junior miners: why it\u2019s so hard Spotlight on Copper 360, Orion, ASP Isotopes* The commodity may be in the ground \u2013 but: Extraction is complex Capital is hard to raise Logistics, infrastructure & communities matter \ud83d\udea7 Junior mining = high risk by design \ud83c\udfa2 Even experienced operators fail \ud83d\udce2 Events & deadlines Power Hour \u2013 19 February \ud83d\udd60 17:30 | \ud83d\udcbb Webinar or \ud83c\udfe2 Rosebank Tax-free investing beyond TFSA ETFs, income strategies & Reg 28 Important reminder \u23f0 Many providers have early contribution deadlines Don\u2019t leave Reg 28 or TFSA top-ups to the last minute \ud83d\udc49 More info: justonelap.com\/events \ud83d\ude4c Wrapping up CapEx boom isn\u2019t over \u2013 but cracks are forming AI demand strong, real ROI still unproven Junior miners remain speculative and unforgiving Stay cautious, stay curious \u201cLook after yourself \u2014 and if you can, look after someone else too.\u201d \u2764\ufe0f Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order ","author_name":"WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown","author_url":"http:\/\/www.justonelap.com","html":"