{"version":1,"type":"rich","provider_name":"Libsyn","provider_url":"https:\/\/www.libsyn.com","height":90,"width":600,"title":"It's been a year, but markets loved it","description":"Worldwide Markets \u2013 Episode 659 Show Notes \u201cIt\u2019s Been a Year\u2026 But Markets Loved It\u201d \ud83d\udcc6 3 December 2025 \ud83c\udf99\ufe0f Host: Simon Brown \ud83c\udfe6 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft \u2014 the global money app. \ud83c\udf0d Opening: A Wild Year That Somehow Ended Beautifully Despite chaos from January to April \u2014 tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 \u2014 markets still delivered a stellar year. If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you\u2019d think it was a boring year\u2026 but Yowza! It was anything but. Reminder: Wall Street \u2260 Main Street \u2014 markets often move ahead of economic reality. \ud83e\udd16 AI Chaos in January: DeepSeek Shakes the Market Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI\u2019s multi-billion dollar spend. Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China\u2019s rapid AI emergence. Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players. \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 The Trump Factor: Tariffs Everywhere Trump sworn in (20 Jan) \u2192 tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days. Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook \u2192 raised questions of US reliability going forward. Triggered global uncertainty but markets... shrugged. \ud83c\uddff\ud83c\udde6 Local Madness: The Three Budget Attempts SA tried three times to get a budget passed. Rand collapses into \u201cLiberation Tariff Day\u201d, hits 19.90 \u2192 quickly followed by \u201c90 deals in 90 days\u201d promises. Only three months in and the year was already unhinged. \ud83d\udcc9 April Market Meltdown\u2026 Followed by a Stunning Recovery US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off. By December \u2192 Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7. Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything. \ud83c\udf99\ufe0f Upcoming: Best-Performing JSE Stocks of 2025 Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate. Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025. \ud83d\uddbc\ufe0f NanoBanana & Gemini: AI Image Tools Blow Simon\u2019s Mind Simon has used DALL\u00b7E heavily for two years \u2014 but: \u274c slow \u274c bad at text \u274c struggles with edits NanoBanana + Gemini 3: \u26a1 insanely fast \ud83d\udd20 perfect text edits \ud83c\udfa8 clean output Alphabet has: \ud83d\udcb0 massive free cash flow \ud83c\udf10 billions of users \ud83d\udce2 advertising infrastructure \u2192 Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now). \ud83d\udcc8 AI Stock Bubble: Is It Popping? Nvidia chart not bearish \u2014 holding support around 165\u2013166 and bouncing. Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average: \u2b07\ufe0f Only Meta is below. Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above. Conclusion: \ud83e\udd2f We are in a bubble\u2026 but it\u2019s not bursting yet. More insights coming in the Power Hour. [caption id="attachment_55081" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025[\/caption] \ud83e\ude99 Bitcoin: The Chart Looks Ugly Trump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn\u2019t reacting positively. Peaked at $126k in October \u2192 now around $87k. Breaking support levels: \u26a0\ufe0f If current zone doesn\u2019t hold \u2192 sub-$70k likely. Gold vs Bitcoin comparison: \ud83e\udd47 Gold behaves like a hedge. \u20bf Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge. [caption id="attachment_55082" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025[\/caption] \ud83c\uddff\ud83c\udde6 South African GDP: Some Bright Spots Q3 2025 GDP: \ud83d\udcc8 +0.5% QoQ \ud83d\udcc8 +2.1% YoY \ud83d\udea7 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% \u2192 first strong rise since Q2 2023. Means: building \u2192 roads, dams, solar, infrastructure \u2014 very positive. \ud83c\udfe6 Banks Benefit Most Reasons: \ud83d\udc4d GDP uptick \u2b06\ufe0f Credit upgrades \u2b07\ufe0f Lower expected inflation \u2b07\ufe0f Lower rates coming \ud83d\udfe9 Off the grey list Valuations: Price-to-book: 1.0\u20131.5\u00d7 Yields: high single digits Winners depend on style: \ud83d\udcb8 Deep value \u2192 ABSA, Nedbank \u2696\ufe0f Balanced \u2192 Standard Bank, FNB \ud83e\udd84 Premium \u2192 Capitec (always expensive) \ud83c\udfe2 Shaftesbury (UK REIT): One to Watch Formerly Capital & Counties. Own Covent Garden & key West End locations. Never recovered from Brexit: from \u00a34 \u2192 now \u00a31.42. Fundamentals: \ud83d\udcb0 Single-digit PE (~8) \ud83d\udcc9 Yield 2.7% \ud83d\udcca Analyst range: \u00a31.48\u2013\u00a32.10 Not a buy yet \u2014 but on the watchlist due to prime assets. \ud83c\udfd8\ufe0f SA Property: The Easy Money Is Gone SA REITs had: \ud83d\ude80 Huge 2024 \ud83d\udcc8 Strong 2025 Many now trade around NAV: Storage, Spear, Vukile \u2192 at\/near NAV Octodec \u2192 still at discount Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying. Markets have closed the gap \u2014 valuations now full. If REITs move to 10\u201315% premiums, Simon will run. \ud83d\udd2e Next Week: Final Show of 2025 Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year. Small caps that surprised everyone. Then \u2192 back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode. \ud83d\udc4b Wrap-Up A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA\u2019s slow-but-positive GDP recovery. As always: \ud83d\udc99 Look after yourself. \ud83e\udd1d And if you can, look after someone else too. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order   ","author_name":"WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown","author_url":"http:\/\/www.justonelap.com","html":"