{"version":1,"type":"rich","provider_name":"Libsyn","provider_url":"https:\/\/www.libsyn.com","height":90,"width":600,"title":"Good Things Happening in SA | How to Spot the Bubble Popping","description":"Worldwide Markets \u2014 Episode 657 (19 November 2025) \ud83d\uddd3\ufe0f\ud83d\udcc8 \ud83d\udd25 This Week on Worldwide Markets Good things are happening in South Africa \ud83c\uddff\ud83c\udde6, bubble-watching on global markets \ud83c\udf88, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One \ud83d\udcca, strong local results (Astral \ud83d\udc14, WeBuyCars \ud83d\ude97, Ninety One \ud83d\udcbc), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings \ud83c\udfa4\u2728. \ud83c\udf88 Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop? Guest Insight: Citigroup\u2019s Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast) Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average. His exit rule: \u27a1\ufe0f Identify the drivers \u2014 the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta). \u27a1\ufe0f The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA \ud83d\udcc9. Current Status: Meta: 12% below the 200-day \u2757 Microsoft: +5.4% above Amazon: +6.5% above Others still safely above. \ud83d\udc49 So we\u2019re halfway to bubble-popping territory. \ud83d\udc49 But: bubbles make money on the way up \u2014 timing the exit is the key. Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) \ud83d\udcb0. \ud83d\udcca Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs Two new AMETFs hit the JSE: \ud83c\uddff\ud83c\udde6 91DINC (Local Income ETF) Quarterly dividends TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT) Tax-free account eligible ~20-year unit trust track record \ud83c\udf0d 91GINC (Global Income ETF) Accumulating (rolls up dividends) ~9% USD yield target Pays in ZAR on the JSE ~4.5% current USD yield Full explainer webcast here \ud83c\udfa5. \ud83c\uddff\ud83c\udde6 Good Things Happening in South Africa Yes, things are still tough \u2014 but several green shoots \ud83c\udf31: 1\ufe0f\u20e3 Greylist Exit SA officially removed \u2014 major reputational win \u2714\ufe0f. 2\ufe0f\u20e3 Medium-term Budget Positives Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%). Primary budget surplus \u2014 only ~6 countries globally manage this. Bond yields down \u22482%, reducing future borrowing costs. Precious metals boom boosting revenue \ud83e\ude99\u2b06\ufe0f. 3\ufe0f\u20e3 New Inflation Target Formalised 3% target, with a 2\u20134% band \ud83c\udfaf. Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus \ud83c\udf4a. 4\ufe0f\u20e3 MPC Outlook Inflation at 3.4% \u2014 within band Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday \u2702\ufe0f\ud83d\udcb8. 5\ufe0f\u20e3 Credit Rating Upgrade S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk \u2192 2-notches Junk. First upgrade in 16 years \u2b50 Positive outlook \u2014 another upgrade possible. Moody\u2019s review coming in December. 6\ufe0f\u20e3 Load Shedding Gone (for now) Effectively no load shedding for months \u26a1\ud83d\ude0a. Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next \ud83d\udea2. 7\ufe0f\u20e3 GNU Functioning Smoothly Budget passed without drama Coalition politics fading into the background \u2014 exactly where they should be. \u26a0\ufe0f But: Chronic unemployment (31%+) \ud83d\ude14 Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues \u2192 Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably. \ud83c\udfa4 Year-End Power Hour \u2014 Book Now! Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026 Limited in-person seats Webcast available Simon reviews last year\u2019s predictions (and mocks himself \ud83e\udd23) Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc. \ud83d\udc49 Book here \ud83d\udcc8 Company Results Round-Up \ud83d\udc14 Astral Foods A horror first half\u2026 turned around: What improved: Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30% Power issues stabilised Independent water supply Yellow maize prices lower \ud83c\udf3d\u2b07\ufe0f Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels Outlook: CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low. \ud83d\ude97 WeBuyCars Trading update spooked the market \u2014 PE dropped from mid-20s \u2192 high teens. Pressures: Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively \ud83c\udde8\ud83c\uddf3 Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens) Their response: Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon Record 16,000 monthly sales Scale still growing Valuation: Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s \ud83d\udc40. \ud83d\udcbc Ninety One (Asset Manager) Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM Market sold it off (priced for perfection?) PE ~11, DY ~6% \u2014 cheap metrics Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell Price target avg \u2248 R47.34 (around current price) \ud83c\udfdb\ufe0f Coronation Last year\u2019s SARS case win inflated the base \u2192 No repeat special dividends \u2192 Lower YoY numbers expected. \ud83d\udcb1 Rand & Commodities \ud83c\uddff\ud83c\udde6 Rand Broke below 17\/USD last week (first time since early 2023) Now back around 17.20 Trend still strengthening \u2014 more in the Year-End Power Hour. \ud83e\ude99 Gold Holding firm, not running Key levels: Support: ~R39,20 Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks Currently steady around R4,050. \ud83d\udcc9 Markets & Crypto S&P drawdown: ~3.5\u20134% Nasdaq: ~5\u20135.5% \u2192 Much panic for not much movement \ud83e\udd37\u200d\u2642\ufe0f. \u20bf Bitcoin Looking rough under R90,000 \u2699\ufe0f Nvidia Earnings \u2014 Wednesday A major market catalyst. Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly. \ud83d\udd2d Coming Up Next Week Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years \ud83d\udcc8 (Spoiler: several gold miners\u2026 but almost all gains from the last year.) Then it\u2019s December wrap-ups \u2192 and back in January. Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order ","author_name":"WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown","author_url":"http:\/\/www.justonelap.com","html":"