{"version":1,"type":"rich","provider_name":"Libsyn","provider_url":"https:\/\/www.libsyn.com","height":90,"width":600,"title":"Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels","description":"Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the confidence problem among national security experts. As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon\u2019s in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, while Zack commends President Trump\u2019s support for a tougher NATO response to Russian incursions. Links:   Jeffrey Friedman, \u201cThe World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials,\u201d Texas National Security Review, Fall 2025.   \u201cAsk The Experts,\u201d Foreign Affairs.   Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press, 2017.   Drew FitzGerald and Lara Seligman, \u201cPentagon Pushes to Double Missile Production for Potential China Conflict,\u201d Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2025.   Derek Scissors and Zack Cooper, \u201cIs Trump Capitulating to China,\u201d AEIdeas, September 25, 2025.   Zack Cooper, \u201cRethinking the Rebalance,\u201d IDSS Paper, September 5, 2025.   Sam Rosenfeld and Matthew Yglesias, \u201cThe Incompetence Dodge,\u201d American Prospect, October 23, 2005.   Tara Copp, Dan Lamothe, Noah Robertson and Alex Horton, \u201cTrump to attend gathering of top generals, upending last-minute plans,\u201d Washington Post, September 28, 2025.   Adam Goldstein, \u201cWhy our critics\u2019 whataboutery over Jimmy Kimmel is wrong,\u201d FIRE, September 22, 2025.   Tom Karako, A Marie Kondo Moment for MTCR: Tidying Up the US Approach to Missile Proliferation, CSIS, September 23, 2025.&amp;nbsp;   Elisabeth Buchwald, &quot;Trump Vows to Enact 'Substantial' Tariffs on Imported Furniture,&quot; CNN, September 29, 2025.&amp;nbsp;   &amp;nbsp; ","author_name":"Net Assessment","author_url":"http:\/\/sites.libsyn.com\/132282","html":"<iframe title=\"Libsyn Player\" style=\"border: none\" src=\"\/\/html5-player.libsyn.com\/embed\/episode\/id\/38439240\/height\/90\/theme\/custom\/thumbnail\/yes\/direction\/forward\/render-playlist\/no\/custom-color\/88AA3C\/\" height=\"90\" width=\"600\" scrolling=\"no\"  allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen><\/iframe>","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/assets.libsyn.com\/secure\/item\/38439240"}