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Property Investors: A valuer's opinion on how long this downturn could run | Scott Chapman
There is one thing every property investor wants to know right now. How long is this property downturn actually going to last?   You've heard all sorts of opinions. Some people say it's almost over. Others are telling you we're heading for a crash that will make 2008 look like a picnic. Neither of those is right, and today's guest has the data to prove it.   By the end of today's show, you're going to understand exactly what history tells us about how long property downturns run for, why some markets are falling harder than others, and what you need to be doing right now if the July 2027 capital gains tax changes could affect you.   My guest today is Scott Chapman, Managing Director of Opteon, the largest independent valuation firm in the country, which means Scott and his team aren't reading about the market from a spreadsheet somewhere. They're valuing thousands of properties every week, right across the country, so they see exactly what's happening on the ground before it shows up in the official statistics.   Opteon has just released some fascinating analysis comparing this downturn to the last three Australian property downturns. What they found might surprise you, and it has real implications for how you should be thinking about your portfolio right now.   We examine how the current downturn compares with previous cycles and why Sydney and Melbourne are experiencing different conditions from other markets.   We explore how interest rates, lending restrictions, buyer sentiment, open-home attendance and auction results can influence property market momentum.   Scott explains why the 1 July 2027 capital gains tax changes may make accurate property valuations increasingly important for investors.   We also discuss why automated estimates can be useful starting points, but should not replace professional advice when making significant investment decisions.   Takeaways   • Property downturns vary significantly between Australian cities • Weak sentiment can delay property market recoveries • Interest rates influence borrowing capacity and buyer confidence • Auction clearances reveal changing demand before prices • Open-home attendance signals shifts in buyer interest • Regional markets can outperform struggling capital cities • Capital gains tax changes require careful valuation planning • Falling values may reduce future CGT baselines • Automated estimates cannot capture property-specific market differences • Tax planning should support strategy, not dictate it   Chapters   02:34 - What the last three property downturns tell us 05:42 - Why sentiment turned so fast this year 12:10 - The July 2027 capital gains tax changes explained 17:57 - Should you get a valuation, and when 20:31 - Why automated valuations can mislead you   Links and Resources:   Join us at one of our upcoming seminars in Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane. ·        Click here for more details and to lock in your spot.https://metropole.com.au/how-to-grow-seminar/ ·        Join us in this small group environment so you can get your personal questions answered.   Answer this week’s trivia question here - www.PropertyTrivia.com.au ·        Win a hard copy of Negotiate Influence Persuade. ·        Everyone wins a copy of a fully updated property report   Michael Yardney – Subscribe to my Property Update newsletter here   Get the team at Metropole to help build your personal Strategic Property plan. Click here and have a chat with us.   Scott Campbell - Managing Director of Opteon Valuers https://opteonsolutions.com/about/team/scott-chapman   Get a bundle of eBooks and Reports at: www.PodcastBonus.com.au     Also, please subscribe to my other podcast Demographics Decoded with Simon Kuestenmacher – just look for Demographics Decoded wherever you are listening to this podcast and subscribe so each week we can unveil the trends shaping your future.   About The Michael Yardney Podcast | Property Investment And Wealth Creation  Australia   The Michael Yardney Podcast is one of Australia’s leading property investment podcasts, helping investors understand the Australian property market and build long-term wealth through strategic property investing.   Each week we explore: • Australian property market updates• Property investment strategies in Australia• Melbourne property market trends• Sydney property market forecasts• Brisbane property investment opportunities• Capital growth property strategies• Property cycles in Australia• Negative gearing and tax strategy• Interest rates and their impact on property• Buyer’s agent insights and investment planning   If you’re serious about building a high-performance property portfolio and creating financial freedom through real estate, this podcast will give you the clarity and strategy you need.   Learn more at:https://propertyupdate.com.auhttps://metropole.com.au
Property Investment & Wealth Creation Australia | The Michael Yardney Podcast
https://michaelyardneypodcast.com.au
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