1 rich Libsyn https://www.libsyn.com 90 600 Is a property market crash coming in 2026? After a five-month break from the podcast, Gavin J Gallagher returns to make the case that we have just entered year one of a new 18-year property cycle, and that year one historically starts with a downturn. The episode opens with a personal story. In January, Gavin and his family stayed in the Fairmont on the Palm in Dubai, in a city-view room overlooking the car park. Weeks later that exact spot was the first impact site of the Iranian drone attack on Dubai. What followed has reshaped the risk picture for property investors in Ireland, the UK and across Europe. Gavin breaks the market into two opposing forces. On the risk side: geopolitical conflict across Iran, Russia and Ukraine, and the US and China AI arms race; interest rates pushed higher for longer by energy-driven cost inflation; a debt overhang spanning government balance sheets, roughly three trillion in private credit, and AI and data centre overbuild; and the fragmentation of NATO and the Western alliance. Any one of these is manageable in isolation. The argument is that they are converging. On the counterbalance side: a structural housing supply shortage. Ireland is delivering around 30,000 units a year against a requirement closer to 80,000, with a population up roughly one million since 2006, a planning system that slows delivery, and a construction labour market still hollowed out by the 2008 crash. Rent controls and the six-year rule have pushed landlords out and tightened rental supply further. Scarcity is holding the market up. Gavin also covers continuity bias, the cognitive trap that makes investors assume the current system will simply persist, and the Dubai contrast, where 120,000 units are landing into a market that has just seen high-rise towers emptying out into low-lying villas. He closes with who is positioned to win: developers, planning gain specialists, commercial-to-residential conversion operators, affordable housing providers, and anyone structuring capital conservatively across multiple funding sources. The message is not to get out of property. It is that luck no longer works, and downturns are where mispriced assets and distressed sellers create the best deals for investors who know what they are doing. Chapters (00:00) Straits of Hormuz reopened, then closed again (02:04) Back after five months, and the question: is a crash coming? (03:14) Dubai, the Fairmont, and the room that became a drone target (04:57) When European airlines started cancelling Middle East flights (06:19) The two-week ceasefire, and why it may not hold (08:32) Continuity bias and why investors miss the turn (09:32) The 18-year property cycle: 1990, 2008, 2026 (11:51) The four risks: geopolitics, rates, debt, fragmentation (12:52) The US and China AI arms race (15:04) Hormuz controls 20% of world oil and gas (16:03) How energy costs feed inflation and interest rates (17:53) Government debt, US debt servicing, and private credit (19:22) AI overinvestment and the data centre five-year problem (21:05) NATO fragmentation and what it means for Europe (25:15) The counterbalance: structural supply shortage (27:10) Irish planning delays and the missing construction labour (29:11) Population up one million, housebuilding down (30:05) Rent controls, the six-year rule, and landlord exit (32:08) Dubai: 120,000 units into a nervous market (33:55) Who wins in this cycle (38:01) Why luck is finished and deliberate investing starts (38:58) The cycle map: 2026 to 2029, 2030 to 2036 Mentioned in this episode The 18-Year Property Cycle episode Episode 271 with James Askew&amp;nbsp; Elite Property Accelerator is open for its next intake. Learn more: https://epa-learn-more.scoreapp.com/ Behind The Facade is hosted by Gavin J Gallagher, a Dublin-based property investor and developer with 30 years in the Irish and international market, and first-hand experience of three property crashes. *** Support the channel: https://buymeacoffee.com/gavinjgallagher&amp;nbsp; Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing https://gavinjgallagher.com <iframe title="Libsyn Player" style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/40926420/height/90/theme/custom/thumbnail/yes/direction/forward/render-playlist/no/custom-color/88AA3C/" height="90" width="600" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe> https://assets.libsyn.com/secure/content/200948845